May 2009
Source:
North Santa Barbara County Economic Outlook
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North County, which might otherwise be expected to lead a vigorous recovery, will be restrained by the fallout from the housing crisis. North County has been hit terribly hard by the housing crisis, and has been in recession for three years. That is the short run. In the longer run, when a robust recovery finally occurs, North Santa Barbara County will be well placed for economic growth.
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April 2009
Source:
Santa Barbara County Economic Outlook
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[We are performing] … bailouts of financial institutions, automobile manufacturers, and who knows what else before we are done. Generally, these moves have been counterproductive. As I've said so many times, recessions are times to reallocate assets. These bailouts slow or prevent the reallocation of assets from less-productive to more-productive uses. The longer we take to make that reallocation, the longer we remain in recession. To the extent that we are successful in keeping assets at less-productive uses, the weaker will be our recovery.
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April 2009
Source:
Santa Barbara County Economic Outlook
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The County's largest employers include Vandenberg AFB, the University of California, two community colleges, federal prisons, hospitals, and government. While some of these employers will see some stress in coming months, none will see anything like the collapse we have seen in the financial, housing, or construction sectors.
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March 2009
Source:
California Economic Outlook
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Most economists would agree that cutting state spending and increasing taxes in a deep recession is not a prescription for stimulating economic growth. Quite the contrary, it is a prescription to slow growth. California is compounding the problem. Tax increases and spending cuts were unavoidable after years of profligate fiscal policy. Imposing new regulations that make California increasingly uncompetitive with other states is not necessary. However, California is proceeding to implement increasingly onerous regulations on businesses. The result will be a very weak economy for years, perhaps decades.
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March 2009
Source:
United States Economic Outlook
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All of this is very disturbing: We are almost surely in the worst recession since the 1930s. We're probably reacting poorly to the financial panic. The probability that the recession will turn into a depression is significant and climbing. We'll probably never recover our losses.
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February 2009
Source:
Ventura County Economic Outlook
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Ventura County has become accustomed to relatively mild recessions. We saw no annual net job losses at all in the 2001 recession. The early 1990s recession was more painful, but Ventura County did far better than California as a whole. All that has changed with the current recession. Ventura County has been losing jobs at a faster pace than California. In 2007, the County lost jobs while California gained jobs. Already we've lost more jobs, and a higher percentage of jobs than we lost in the entire 1990s recession.
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