The Economic Forecast Project is the premier economic and business consulting organization in the Tri-Counties. Our existing models give us the ability to examine the economic impact of changes in demographics, employment, income, real estate, prices, interest rates, county government activities, retail sales and tourism might impact the local economy.

The Economic Forecast Project has the capability to build economic models customized to our clients’ needs. For specialized studies in the Tri-Counties area (or any sub-area) we can quickly augment our existing modeling structure to incorporate linkages of interest, or we can build special models from scratch. A special model can focus on a certain area of activity in more depth than the standard model (like special attention to commercial lease rates). A special model can focus on generating forecasts of higher frequency than the standard, for example monthly frequency forecasts.

The Staff at the Economic Forecast Project can work with members of the community in developing special analytical tools for other areas of interest, like financial analysis, statistical analysis, traffic analysis, and environmental analysis. Please contact us with your needs.

The Economic Forecast Project has the economic modeling capability to produce short and long term forecasts for economic and business activity for the Tri-Counties area. This includes the Tri-Counties as an entire region, sub-regions like counties in-between, and also includes smaller (economic) areas. As an example, we include data and forecasts for the city of Guadalupe. The database supporting the models has evolved into the largest depository of regional economic, business, local government and demographic information in the Tri Counties.

We can characterize the kinds of information that we forecast by the following categories:

Prices Interest Rates Employment Levels Retail Sales

Housing Prices Home Building Activity Commercial Building Activity

Population Growth Income Levels Tourism

Forecast Models and Databank

Since 1985 the Economic Forecast Project has developed a local databank and a series of forecast models for the Santa Barbara, Ventura, and San Luis Obispo County economies. The econometric models were originally developed by UCSB faculty members for use in economics courses. As the models were expanded and improved, the forecasts became useful to the local business and planning community. The long term econometric forecasting models produce projections of nearly 100 key local economic indicators over a 10 year forecast period. The short term forecasting models generate projections of retail sales, employment, population, housing, and tourism on a quarterly basis over a 3 year forecast period.

The database used to support the models has evolved into the largest historical depository of regional economic, business, and demographic information that presently exists. The database also includes a number of social and environmental indicators which we monitor continuously. By focusing our attention on data and other information specific to the regional economies we are better equipped to evaluate the local implications of policies pursued by city, county, state, and federal governments, or by uncontrollable events which may affect the region, such as fire or drought.

We regularly conduct specialized industry or market surveys to gather primary data on specific information of interest.

The UCSB Economic Forecast Project conducts two surveys every year and other surveys at the request of sponsors or other organizations. These are:

Business Sentiment (quarterly)
Largest Employers Survey (annual)


Areas Covered

• San Luis Obispo County
• Santa Barbara County
• Ventura County
• North Santa Barbara County
• Oxnard/Port Hueneme
• East Ventura County

We have also conducted surveys in the past on tourism activity, hotel room occupancy and Vintner activity. Our statisticians stand ready to work with the community or our clients to design and implement surveys of a customized nature.