The UCSB Economic Forecast Project reports on various social indicators, including offenses known to the police. In this study we examine the number of violent offenses consisting of murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, as well as the number of property offenses consisting of burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle- theft. Even-though property crimes are currently about seven times as frequent as violent crimes in the City of Santa Barbara, it is worth remembering that violent crimes cause about three times as much damage to victims.

The number of violent offenses known to the police, as well as their rate per 100,000 people, are exhibited in the next graph for the years 1985-2010. Since the population for the city varies a bit below 100,000 the number and this rate are not all that different. The data was obtained from the FBI uniform Crime Reporting Statistics, http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/, where a tool allows you to construct your own table. The data for 2010 was obtained from the police department, http://www.sbpd.com/goreport/maps/UCRWeb.htm

Note that the rate of violent offenses grew rapidly in the 1980’s, peaked about 1990, and has been declining ever since, including 2007-2009, the years of the Great Recession. This has puzzled most criminologists who expected crime to increase with the number of people out of the labor force. Property crime has also followed this pattern, peaking in the early nineties and declining dramatically thereafter, as shown in the next graph.

The violent crime rate is correlated with the property crime rate, as shown in the following graph for Santa Barbara. This is true for the country as a whole, as well as for  the City of Santa Barbara.

The next graph compares the rate of violent offenses per 100,000 for the nation and for the city of Santa Barbara. The rate of violent crime grew in the sixties, seventies and eighties and then has declined for the past two decades. The Santa Barbara rate is more variable or noisier but follows the national pattern.

Perspectives about Crime

We noted that crime has continued to decrease during the Great Recession despite the increase in unemployment rates. A different perspective on crime is to postulate that perhaps the same forces that motivate people to participate in legal work also motivate them to participate in crime. Since crime is predominantly a phenomenon committed by young males, in the next graph, we examine the trajectory of male labor force participation rates over time for males 16-24 years of age in the US. Note these participation rates for young males have been declining since 1979. Note also that the pattern over time for this participation rate is similar to the pattern for US property crime rates.

The nature of the home and the labor market was also changing profoundly during this period. The participation rate of women was rising from 32.7 percent in 1948 to 60 percent in 1999 and was 58.6 percent in 2010. So women were moving from the home to the labor market, changing the nature of both places. The labor market was no longer a male dominated environment, as reflected by women’s percentage of total employment, which grew from 38.5 percent in 1973 to 47.2 percent in 2010. This is shown in a graph along with the labor force participation rate of women. As the workplace became nearly evenly divided between the genders, this may have restrained anti-social behavior and limited some opportunities for crime.

A statistical analysis was conducted on the percentage changes from year to year in the US property crime rate. From 1960 through 1980, when crime was growing, these changes were predominately positive, eighteen in all, versus two negative. Between 1981 and 1990, when crime was leveling off, these changes were evenly divided between positive and negative. Since 1991, as crime has fallen, these changes have been predominately negative, seventeen in all versus two positive. As expected, since 1973, these year to year changes in the crime rate have been positively correlated with year to year changes in the labor force participation rate of men ages 16-24, lagged two years, and negatively correlated with women’s percentage of total employment.

A statistical analysis of the US property crime rate from 1960 through 2010 was conducted, substituting the labor force participation rate of women for women’s percentage of employment. The crime rate was positively correlated with the labor force participation rate for men ages 16-24, lagged two years,  and negatively correlated with the labor force participation rate for women, lagged three years. This result was used to forecast the US property crime rate for 2011 of 2735.5 per 100,000, a decline of 7.3 percent. We would expect property crime rates to continue to decline in Santa Barbara, perhaps to 2770 per 100,000 people.

Lastly, it is interesting to compare property crime rates per 100,000 people for the City of Santa Barbara, California, and the US, as illustrated in the next graph. Note that until 1996, the property crime rate in California was higher than this rate for the country as a whole. Once property crime rates started declining in the early nineties, they have been similar for all three of these geographical jurisdictions.

Author – Llad Phillips

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